New Haven Independent

Weicker, who represented Connecticut as a Republican in the U.S. Senate from 1971-1989 and was elected to one term as governor as an independent in 1990, has been hinting for months that he might challenge Lieberman. He made his intentions clearer at a speech Monday before the Hartford Rotary Club.

For more than a year progressive Democratic organizers have tried to recruit a left-of-center Democrat to challenge Lieberman in a primary in 2006. Lieberman has emerged as Republican President Bush’s chief supporter on the war in Iraq. He has also supported the Republicans’ bid to limit the legal rights of detainees; he’s rumored to be in line to a Bush cabinet post.

The problem for progressive Democrats is that Lieberman’s conservative positions have made him harder to beat, not easier, in a general election. From the time he won in his Senate seat in 1988 against Lowell Weicker, he has consciously built his base among independents and conservatives in Connecticut. Although Connecticut is a blue state that elects some liberal Democrats, progressive Democrats usually have far more influence in party primaries than in general elections.

“I think the way to beat Lieberman is in a Democratic primary,” said Tom Swan, the state’s most active strategist for progressive electoral campaigns. “It would be very difficult to win a three-way race. A significant number of conservative Republicans would cross over and vote for Lieberman. Lieberman would get a significant number of independents, too.”

Independents are the prize voting bloc in Connecticut, something both Lieberman and Weicker have long understood. They far outnumber other voters. According to the most recent statistics at the Secretary of the State’s Office, Connecticut has 931,366 registered independents, 700,876 registered Democrats, 455,420 registered Republicans, and 4,584 registered minor-party voters.

Swan, who runs the Connecticut Citizen Action Group, put together the campaign that unseat powerful Republican State Sen. William Aniskovich from Branford in 2004; he was presidential candidate Howard Dean’s Connecticut field coordinator. And he has been trying for more than a year to recruit a progressive Democrat to challenge Lieberman in next August’s party primary.

Without success, so far.

Why?

“Last I checked, [Lieberman] had $4 million in a bank account.” Not to mention statewide name recognition and popularity ratings above 65 percent.

Even among Democrats Lieberman has approval ratings that high. Yet his ratings are even higher (72 percent) with Republicans. (Click here to see results of the latest Quinnipiac College poll.) And the Democrats most likely to turn out in primaries are the progressives.

Swan insists that there’s still time to organize a viable primary challenge, on two conditions: a candidate be found who has the bucks (minimum needed: $2 million) and the brains. “There’s a number of things that are inexcusable for anyone from Connecticut, let a lone a Democrat,” Swan said of Lieberman, including his championing of the Iraq war and his support for Supreme Court nominee John Roberts. Swann said he’s scheduling a meeting with a potential candidate, a Fairfield County businessman, whom other progressives are trying to interest in a run.

1990 Redux?

Another veteran Connecticut Democratic activist who had been involved in discussions over a potential Weicker challenger disagreed with Swann. This Democrat (who chose to remain unidentified) said he believes Weicker can pull off a general election because of his own record and enthusiasm.

“You need someone with Weicker’s ego and the grudge [from the 1988 loss] to go after Lieberman,” he said. “I’d love to see him have a debate with Lieberman. I think he’d have a shot.”

Besides, he said, “there’s no one else out there.”

Or as Charlie Pillsbury of the New Haven Green Party put it, “I don’t think anyone within the Democratic Party has the guts to challenge Lieberman, even though Lieberman is clearly out of step with his own party on Iraq and the treatment/torture of detainees. I think, therefore, that leaves only a Weicker or some other independent or third party candidate to challenge Lieberman and raise these issues as patriotic citizens should.”

Plenty of Democrats have been urging Weicker to run, Weicker said Tuesday. He said he can’t run as a Democrat — because he’s not a Democrat. He’s an independent. “I’m going out to win,” he said. “I’m not afraid to lose.” (Click here to read more from the interview.)

There is a winning scenario for a Weicker third-party quest: Weicker’s own victory in the 1990 gubernatorial race. He defeated Republican John Rowland and Democrat Bruce Morrison (who barely topped 20 percent of the vote) in that three-way race by siphoning off liberal Democratic votes as well as centrist, independent votes. So that theoretically could happen again, especially if the Republicans put up a candidate, which their state chairman suggested they might in the face of a Weicker run.

However, there would be important differences between 2006 and 1990: Weicker is older (74). Lieberman is a popular incumbent; there was no incumbent in the 1990 gubernatorial race, and Democrat Morrison was largely abandoned by Democratic powerbrokers. And Republican Rowland was seen as too conservative for middle-of-the-road voters. Joe Lieberman owns the middle of the road.

Lieberman issued a statement Monday in response to Weicker’s rumblings: “I am accustomed to having opponents and I look forward to putting my record before the Connecticut voters again next year and to earning the privilege of serving as their senator for another term.”