New Haven Independent

The big winner ? Toy sales, up 13 percent.

But while the retail federation says consumers remain cautious, I think there is more to be mined from this year’s spending figures so far.

I think we are undergoing a radical shift in how people save and spend money not seen since my parents (and for some of you grandparents or great grandparents) went through the great depression. For many, saving became a religion. “Wants” were never confused with “needs” and frugality was considered a virtue not a vice.

Everyone knows someone who doesn’t have a job. About 16 million of us are either unemployed or, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics puts it, are “marginally attached to the workforce.”

But here is the real problem: 70 percent of our economy is based on us buying stuff. A good part of the reason why there is so much unemployment is that those of us who still have jobs aren’t spending money like we used to because we’re concerned we could be next.

Companies are unwilling to hire people to either make or sell stuff if they don’t see us coming in to buy the stuff they’ve already made.

But from my vantage point all of this reluctance may not be so bad in the long run.

Consider what happens if we all buy less:

Shopping no longer becomes a sport, people don’t buy something just because it is on sale. Admittedly this will mean the $29 electric wine cork remover will be gone forever, but I think we will survive.

A few malls will close. Some people will lose their jobs but I suspect not many since I can never seem to find anyone who actually works at any of the stores. The few that do seem to work part-time.

Some big box retail stores will also close, but like malls I suspect the employment numbers will not budge much with their passing. Smaller “mom and pop” stores will open to fill the void and those already in business will have to hire people to service the increased traffic.

QVC, HSN and a dozen other shopping channels will merge. Gone forever will be the one-hour pitch for so-called “high end” clothing, make-up, diet drinks and cookware. How we will survive I am not sure.

With shopping no longer a sport or something to do on a day off, companies that import boatloads of junk will find themselves out of business. Not soon enough.

Some “eating establishments” will close as people spend more time eating home and friends actually invite other friends to their homes for dinner. “Real” restaurants will thrive. Bland chain-store food designed by “bean counters”, “corporate chefs” and spice-a-phobics will die off.

And there is more good news in all of this carnage. Inevitably as the price of oil goes up and thereby the cost of importing goods also goes up, companies may finally come to realize (as some have) that making it “here” is not much more expensive than making it “there.” Maybe even cheaper. Eventually some manufacturing will return to the U.S.. We’ll actually make real “stuff” again.

Housing prices will not quickly, if ever, return to their “pre-burst” level. You and I will spend less for our next house than we did 5 or 10 years ago and will have more money to save and invest in ourselves. We’ll go back to seeing a house as a place to live in, not as an “investment vehicle.”

At the same time, banks that made billions selling mortgages to people who never should have gotten a car loan will have a hard time selling off loans and some will go “belly-up.” With less loans to write and less companies gobbling up other companies the CEOs on Wall Street that are left will have a hard time commanding salaries in the hundreds of millions. They weren’t worth it then, never mind today..

Since we are buying less and consuming less we will become more selective in what we buy. “Design” and “Quality” will have new meaning.

And flush with a few extra dollars from not buying everything in sight, we might actually give more to our favorite local charities or place of worship.

From where I’m standing I’d call that as good a way as any to start the holiday season. Let the saving begin!