New Haven Independent

So here we go:

Democrats and Republicans in Connecticut will continue to play “chicken” with the budget deficit. Democrats will talk about more revenue, Republicans about more spending cuts. They’ll pay lip service to both and move a lot of numbers around, ultimately not doing much. Jobs and the state budget deficit will become the two big issues of the gubernatorial campaign.

Speaking about campaigns … Even though it has been over two decades since a Democrat last sat in the governor’s mansion as anything more than a guest, Democrats will be hard pressed to pick a candidate. It will come down to Susan Bysiewicz and Ned Lamont. The others will not be able to get the traction needed to be statewide candidates.

With just about everyone in the state Republican Party trying to run against Chris Dodd, my bet today is that it will come down to a tight race between Rob Simmons and Linda McMahon. Simmons has the name recognition and connections; McMahon sells herself as a political outsider and has lots of dollars to sell herself to anyone willing to listen. My bet is that Simmons ultimately gets the nod to take on Dodd only because of his track record in government, which will look a lot better to people than McMahon getting a hug from World Wrestling’s Hulk Hogan.

If the economy continues to remain sour, pick Simmons as the winner in a race with Dodd. If unemployment drops to 9 percent or less or the economy continues to heat back up, I’d put my money on Dodd. Connecticut isn’t nicknamed “the land of steady habits” for nothing. Voters usually go with the person they know unless you give them a compelling reason not to do so.

Democrats will get some heat about the just passed health care bill while they are home for the holidays. That will dissipate as most Americans figure out they will be much better off with health care reform than without it. The lies about “death panels” and the other nonsense will die off except in the minds of the few who still believe that the president isn’t an American citizen or that he is trying to take away their guns.

Nationally I’d go with unemployment dropping down to 9 percent by April or May. As that happens expect President Obama’s poll ratings to shoot past 50 percent and land at around 60 percent.

Glenn Beck, Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity et .al will continue to do well in the ratings, especially Beck, through the first half of the year. It is easy to get ratings when your stock and trade is fear and anger. Look for Beck’s numbers in particular to move inversely to the strength of the economy and unemployment. As those numbers get better, Beck’s and others like him will see their numbers drop.

Soon after, Beck will announce that the sky is falling.

Republicans will continue to say “no” to everything in Washington, setting themselves up as the “opposition party” rather than as the “solution party.” If the economy even looks like it is seriously on the rebound, then Republicans will take it on the chin in November. If not, they will gain 20 or so seats in the House. My prediction is that the House and the Senate will basically remain the status quo, with Democrats holding onto both by slim margins.

And if you thought 2009 was a bad year for governance, you ain’t seen nothing. 2010 will see the continued Balkanization of the U.S. even as officeholders relinquish the bare minimum of civility they currently enjoy with one another.

And look for taxes to go up both in Connecticut and nationally. All of us want government to do more for us, fix more roads, build more bridges, pay for all of our prescriptions the day we turn 65, but none of us want to pay for it. Parents expect their kids to have only the best in school but godforbid they cut the high school football or soccer program. Raise our taxes to pay for those things? Heavens no!

Happy New Year. The best is yet to come.