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Lamont Even Lost New Haven; City Turnout 21%
by Paul Bass | Aug 11, 2010 1:50 pm
(31) Comments | Commenting has been closed | E-mail the Author
Posted to: Politics, Campaign 2010
Party leaders told New Haven Democrats to vote “Line B.” They voted “Line A” instead, with one exception: They favored hometown candidate Gerry Garcia in the secretary of the state primary. Even that was close.
The Registrar of Voters Wednesday afternoon released official results, including absentee ballot tallies, for the Tuesday primaries.
They showed that Dan Malloy captured 4,469 New Haven votes in his successful quest for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, versus 4,289 for Ned Lamont. Lamont had been favored to win the city, his putative stronghold. He opened his statewide headquarters on Orange Street. New Haven’s mayor and Democratic Party chairwoman threw their organization’s support behind him. Lamont outspent Malloy by more than 3-1 statewide. On primary day the campaign had 250 workers pulling votes in town, according to campaign manager Joe Abbey.
The Malloy camp hoped to field maybe half that many vote-pullers. In the end it had no money for anyone to go out into neighborhoods to entice supporters to the polls, according to city campaign director Darnell Goldson.
“We had no money left,” he explained. Instead, Goldson decided to station volunteers at polling places to try to sway voters already showing up. It turned out most voters arrived to vote in state representative primaries, undecided in the gubernatorial primary, and proved persuadable, Goldson said.
Malloy’s strongest showing was in Westville’s Ward 25. Goldson noted that while Malloy won only six of 13 wards (not counting Yale) with African-American aldermen and significant African-American population, he won the overall vote in those combined wards. “He lost all those wards four years ago,” in a gubernatorial primary, Goldson noted. Malloy campaigned repeatedly in New Haven’s black community in closing weeks. (Click on the play arrow at the top of the story for a sample.)
“My lesson of this election was the importance of message. If you lack a message, no field operation, no amount of of money, no amount of negative ads can make up for that,” said New Haven Mayor John DeStefano, a leading Lamont supporter this year (who ran against Malloy in that 2006 primary, and beat him). “The [lack of] a sharp coherent message resulted in low voter turnout and lack of urgency among voters.” (Click on the play arrow at left to watch Lamont make his final pitch at a New Haven rally Monday night.)
In New Haven, just 9,082 voters, or 21 percent of registered Democrats, cast ballots in Democratic primaries Tuesday.
The city Democratic establishment had urged voters to select the slate of challengers who appeared on Line B of the ballot—Lamont, lieutenant governor candidate Mary Glassman, secretary of state hopeful Gerry Garcia, comptroller candidate Michael Jarjura—who were taking on state party-endorsed candidates who appeared on Line A.
New Haven Democrats did pick Garcia over State Rep. Denise Merrill, 4,117 to 3,841. (Merrill won statewide.) Otherwise city Dems chose Nancy Wyman over Glassman, 4,756 to 3,385; and Kevin Lembo over Jarjura, 4,976 to 2,690.
In New Haven state representative races, Roland Lemar defeated Debra Hauser 973 to 456 in the portion of the 96th District that lies in New Haven (with Lemar winning 532-399 on the machines in Hamden, not counting absetnee ballots); Pat Dillon beat Sergio Rodriguez 1,561 to 794 in the 92nd District; and Gary Holder-Winfield prevailed over Willy Greene 962 to 289 in the 94th District. (Unlike results reported Tuesday night, these final figures include absentee ballots.)
Four hundred ninety-seven New Haven Republicans (remember them?), or 20 percent of the 2,495 citywide total, voted in their primaries. They chose Tom Foley (263 votes) over Michael Fedele (182) and Oz Griebel (81) in the gubernatorial contest, Lisa Wilson-Foley (241) over Mark Boughton (234) for lieutenant governor, Linda McMahon (255) over Peter Schiff (130) and Rob Simmons (146) for U.S. Senate; and Tea Party member Martha Dean (302) over Ross Garber (179) for attorney general.
New Haven ward voting breakdowns for the Democratic gubernatorial primary follow.
Ward 1: Malloy 23, Lamont 28. Wyman 22, Glassman 26.
Ward 2: Malloy 92, Lamont 114. Wyman 96, Glassman 94.
Ward 3: Malloy 65, Lamont 54. Wyman 76, Glassman 40.
Ward 4: Malloy, 124, Lamont 142. Wyman 121, Glassman 118.
Ward 5: Malloy 112, Lamont 108. Wyman 131, Glassman 74.
Ward 6: Malloy 41, Lamont 39. Wyman 40, Glassman 32.
Ward 7: Malloy 98, Lamont 128. Wyman 113, Glassman 100.
Ward 8: Malloy 231, Lamont 152. Wyman 241, Glassman 126.
Ward 9: Malloy 209, Lamont 178. Wyman 217, Glassman 140.
Ward 10: Malloy 286, Lamont 276. Wyman 303, Glassman 216.
Ward 11: Malloy 197, Lamont 166. Wyman 222, Glassman 107.
Ward 12: Malloy 109, Lamont 111. Wyman 118, Glassman 96.
Ward 13: Malloy 153, Lamont 157. Wyman 161, Glassman 135.
Ward 14: Malloy 103, Lamont 156. Wyman 122, Glassman 116.
Ward 15: Malloy 70, Lamont 90. Wyman 83, Glassman 62.
Ward 16: Malloy 42, Lamont 144. Wyman 48, Glassman 132.
Ward 17: Malloy 151, Lamont 86. Wyman 150, Glassman 77.
Ward 18: Malloy 199, Lamont 122. Wyman 204, Glassman 105.
Ward 19: Malloy 189, Lamont 154. Wyman 283, Glassman 135.
Ward 20: Malloy 140, Lamont 188. Wyman 155, Glassman 140.
Ward 21: Malloy 127, Lamont 105. Wyman 146, Glassman 69.
Ward 22: Malloy 118, Lamont 109. Wyman 114, Glassman 80.
Ward 23: Malloy 166, Lamont 179. Wyman 177, Glassman 121.
Ward 24: Malloy 163, Lamont 186. Wyman 171, Glassman 158.
Ward 25: Malloy 449, Lamont 274. Wyman 455, Glassman 227.
Ward 26: Malloy 268, Lamont 282. Wyman 297, Glassman 219.
Ward 27: Malloy 171, Lamont 192. Wyman 186, Glassman 143.
Ward 28: Malloy 129, Lamont 137. Wyman 140, Glassman 113.
Ward 29: Malloy 108, Lamont 138. Wyman 124, Glassman 107.
Ward 30: Malloy 136, Lamont 94. Wyman 133, Glassman 77.
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Comments
posted by: angelo on August 11, 2010 2:26pm
Viewing the electorate as a whole—
Malloy - 10.3%
Lamont - 9.9%
Neither -79.8%
posted by: Threefifths on August 11, 2010 2:49pm
Party leaders told New Haven Democrats to vote “Line B.” They voted “Line A” instead, with one exception: They favored hometown candidate Gerry Garcia in the secretary of the state primary. Even that was close.
What happen to a mind of your own,
posted by: cwhig on August 11, 2010 2:54pm
On the other hand, 21% is 6% better than the state total. Nonetheless, point taken.
posted by: observer on August 11, 2010 3:31pm
So if a lack of a clear message was a problem, why did Johnny D wait until the day after to raise that as a concern? With half-hearted support like that, no wonder Lamont got trounced.
posted by: Leslie on August 11, 2010 3:54pm
Wow, check out the turnout in Ward 1, the lowest in the city! Amazing what happens in a summer election when you have a ward where half the people flee the city in the summer. Mind you, I’m not in the city right now either, but I am grown up enough to send in an absentee ballot (for Ward 7 - hope it was counted!)
posted by: Matt on August 11, 2010 3:58pm
We remember Lamont from his irritating anti-war commericials a view years ago. His whiny anti-military ramblings didn’t do it for me then and his sudden reinvention as a job creator rather than the professional complainer doesn’t do it for me now.
Not that I’m happy with Malloy. I heard him on NPR last week and he strikes me as a bit icky. I voted against Ned not for Malloy.
posted by: Curious on August 11, 2010 4:00pm
Are the turnout percentages available by ward? In other words, who really cares who is elected around town?
[Highest turnouts: Ward 25, 44%; half of Ward 19 (the part falling in the 11th State Senatorial district) 37%; Ward 26, 35%; Ward 10, 34%; Ward 9, 31%; Ward 11 30%.]
posted by: Insider2 on August 11, 2010 5:59pm
Party Leaders did not say vote line B in the 94th. In fact much to Lamont’s surprise his workers were pushing only Lamont-Glassman Garcia. And then asking people to vote line A for state representative, US Senator etc.
Alderman Paca, Jared, Lamonts field director threw Greene under the bus. And this time Greene played by the rules and still got screwed. ... Did he really think he was going to get some support? He should have. After all he was a delegate for Lamont and many thought he would bolt and give the vote to Malloy. After all he does have a relationship with Malloy.But Greene stayed with team and all were betting that he would defect to other side. He didn’t. Anyway Greene had zero in the bank and no way to get his message out.
The Lamont crew spent three weeks heading in to the campaign distributing Garys literature in 20,21 and 22. Greene confronted Jared on the issue and only to be told by Jared he can’t be responsible for what his workers do in the field…. Saw Greene this morning on Chapel at Starbucks and he was his gentlemanly self gave me a smile and said hello and drove off in his car. Damn either the guy knows something we don’t know or he definitely marches to beat of a different drummer.
posted by: Bill Saunders on August 11, 2010 7:21pm
Curious,
The percentages are available as part of the breakdown provided by the registrar of voters. I haven’t picked up a copy yet, but it is always infinitely fascinating. From my analysis in past years the top 1/3 of the voting wards consistently have the same voting power as the bottom 2/3.
btw, I advertently met Gerry Garcia last night at his post election get together at Christy’s. You know, he seems like a very genuine person, and would love to see him get involved in politics on the local level.
posted by: yz on August 11, 2010 8:29pm
Leslie,
That may mean that many students are not registered to vote in CT, or that many students are not members of the democratic party, or that many students don’t care.
posted by: The Big Mac on August 11, 2010 9:10pm
‘The city democratic establishment had urged voters .....’ Is this a subtle way of saying ‘Johnny Boy ordered his dependents’. If so it looks like ‘his dependents’ are beginning to think for themselves. Democracy in New Haven as we know it is under threat. How sad. We may get real activist and progressive politicians who represent the citizens sometime this century.
posted by: robn on August 11, 2010 10:45pm
To give some of that ever lacking context to the ward discussion, here’s a link to a (slightly ginormous 1.3MB pdf) city ward map.
posted by: robn on August 11, 2010 10:51pm
About 39,000 registered democrats voted in the past presidential election. Many of these (and I’d be interested in knowing that exact number) we’re Yale undergrad and grad students.
So take away the students, take away hot august vacationers, take away the typical energy of a presidential election, add a pouring rainy election day and a wildly complicated season of electoral musical chairs and maybe 9,082 voters doesn’t seem so bad.
Just sayin…
posted by: robn on August 11, 2010 10:55pm
P.S. ANGELO
You don’t show up to vote, you don’t count.
Tough luck but its the truth. Apathy gets you no sympathy.
posted by: Anderson Scooper on August 12, 2010 1:23am
“Brownfield sites” sounds like just another round of boondoggles.
Will Gary and Looney go on record that a Malloy governship will put cities first? (as against the suburbs?) What will Dan Malloy do to correct the gross inequity of New Haven’s 4.3% property tax rate? Would he actually suggest that a rich Fairfield County pay more into the state kitty?
My gut says that New Haven is getting used. And that the only ones to profit will be the politicians, and whoever else is for sale. (Brancati is a big Malloy booster, btw.)
But somebody please make the case that Malloy is in New Haven’s best interest, and that yesterday wasn’t just a matter of voter turn-off and DeStefano fatigue.
posted by: angelo on August 12, 2010 8:41am
robn - It depends what you mean by “count.” those who do not vote in local elections but vote in national elections are registering an opinion—they don’t care about local elections because they think those elections are meaningless. In many cases they are right. Let’s take the great passion in the NHI over Lemar/Hauser. When it comes to voting in Hartford, they are likely to be virtually identical. if you don’t know them and don’t care about who spent how much money, what’s the difference? You may take this as “not counting,” but a lot of people think “counting” in a meaningless election is not particularly productive. Is pounding the pavement for Lemar a productive activity? It did help get Lemar elected, but it is unlikely to affect policy. To many of those who chose not to vote, there are other activities that count more than local elections.
posted by: Bill Saunders on August 12, 2010 11:19am
Robn,
I think that is an overly simplistic analysis, and quite frankly, gives Yale students too much credit as a voting block.
I think if you research this further, you will find that even the notoriously low-turnout wards enjoyed surprisingly high turnouts in the last presidential election.
posted by: Bill Saunders on August 12, 2010 11:40am
Robn,
Upon further research, comparing apples to apples, voting in the democratic primary for governor was down 39% from 2006.
posted by: Drosophila on the Wall on August 12, 2010 1:44pm
Bill: I agree with you that Robn’s analysis is fairly superficial, but to be fair, comparing an election in which Mayor Destefano was one of the candidates with one in which he wasn’t on the ballot with regards to voter turnout in New Haven probably ignores some pretty important factors that wouldn’t be in play across the state (namely, that Destefano has particularly strong support in New Haven, as well as a well-established political operation). Of course, if you were talking about statewide turnout, the comparison is far more robust.
Also, with turnout noticeably lower than that in the municipal election last year, I’m not sure how reliable conclusions about “Destefano fatigue” are. Significant vote-pulling by either side would have resulted in higher turnout than we saw this week. The results probably point more strongly to this election not being particularly interesting to most voters, as many people have been pointing out the last few days.
Finally, Robn, it is true that Yale students really didn’t turn out to vote in this election, but they don’t tend to make up such a huge proportion of the New Haven electorate (usually up to around 1000 Yalies vote in local elections in CT), and many who come from out of state may have decided that their votes would have a greater impact on their agenda at home than in Connecticut, where there wasn’t a huge difference between most of the candidates running for office yesterday. The most marked difference, in my opinion, is probably between Rob Simmons and Linda McMahon, but then again, I doubt there are many Yalies who would even consider joining the Republican party.
posted by: Bill Saunders on August 12, 2010 2:55pm
Drosophila,
In looking at the statewide numbers, (2010 vs. 2006), overall voting in the Democratic Primary for Governor was down 42%.
New Haven is actually looking a little less apathetic than the rest of the state, though that conclusion may be within the realm of statistical uncertainties, or just due to the grease in the machine.
posted by: Drosophila on the Wall on August 12, 2010 3:13pm
Bill,
I’m actually working on building a consolidated data set with all of the turnout data available on the CT SOTS website for statewide primary elections going back to 2000 to study this trend (in my free time; this is more a project driven by curiosity than any attempt at being productive). If there’s interest, I’d be happy to share it once it’s finished (should be some time this weekend/early next week, I have to call them about the 2002 data as it isn’t available online).
posted by: robn on August 12, 2010 3:56pm
DRO,
Wicked curious. Post it and I will surely bask in the glow of your statisticaluty.
Googlespreadsheet?
posted by: Bill Saunders on August 12, 2010 3:57pm
Drosophila,
Please post your analysis when complete.
It’s a little more digging, but if the data could be normalized against fluctuations in the registered voter population for each year, it would be more valid.
posted by: Insider? on August 12, 2010 4:56pm
Willie was not a delegate for Lamont. If Willie wanted to run a serious race he should have participated in the Clean elections system instead of relying on Lamont to help him.
posted by: Curious on August 12, 2010 9:30pm
Next step is to compare who selects our political leaders to who complains about them.
posted by: abg on August 13, 2010 11:22am
Is 21% the final number for citywide Dem turnout? What about Republican turnout?
[Yes, those are the final official numbers. GOP turnout was 20%.]
posted by: Willy D. Greene on August 13, 2010 11:43am
To Insider: First of all I was a delegate at the convention and my run was serious. Furthermore I was made a delegate by the town chair. Also I did not depend on Lamont to finance my campaign. I place no blame on anyone but myself for my own inability to raise money for my campaign.
I did not participate in the clean election funding because quite frankly I don’t believe in it. I was not the incumbent nor did I seek the endorsement of the Town Committee or the City Administration. Therefore I repeat the responsibility to raise money began and failed with me and no one else. Did conversation take place with campaign workers from the Lamont Campaign regarding my run and how we could possibly help each other? Yes. However there were never any promises made by them nor did I at anytime expect anything from them.
What I find extremely disquieting is that given the poor fiscal climate of this state we can find millions of dollars to finance the political dreams of politicians who seek office. But we can’t find money to fund the dreams of our children so the can get get summer jobs or enabling cities to use that money to create and fund in some cases enhance summer programs, for our youth. We could even earmark some of those funds for elderly programs instead of cutting them.
I don’t care where the money comes from to fund the campaigns, be it unclaimed or unused. Those funds should be earmarked for much more needed programs and not for political endeavors.
Also Insider not one single person can honestly step forward and say they have heard or had a conversation with me complaining about Lamont. I do believe the best man prevailed in the Governors Race and 94 made their decision and I congratulate Gary on his win and wish him all the best.
Instead of playing Monday Morning Quarterback and providing inadequate information as you have the focus should be on making sure Malloy wins in November and nothing else.
Have a wonderful and Blessed weekend.
posted by: Willy D. Green on August 14, 2010 11:55am
posted by: Insider2 on August 11, 2010 6:59pm The Lamont crew spent three weeks heading in to the campaign distributing Gary’s literature in 20,21 and 22. Greene confronted Jared on the issue and only to be told by Jared he can’t be responsible for what his workers do in the field….
Insider2: Allow me to correct you. There was no confrontation with anyone from the Lamont Campaign. I did however send an email to Jared asking why people connected to the Lamont Campaign was passing out Gary’s literature?
You stated correctly I was a delegate at the Democratic Convention. However my supporting Lamont did not mean that he or his people had an obligation to support my campaign. Jared simply replied that he was not aware of it and at no time was a decision made to pass out Gary’s material. However we can’t be responsible for what our volunteers do in the field. I found his response very amusing and gave it no further thought.
As I stated earlier I firmly believe that the best man prevailed in the Race for Governor and our major focus over the next few months should be spent informing our community how important it is for everyone to come out in full force in November and make sure that Malloy again prevails in the November election.
By the way I got did receive your message and I am not going anywhere. There is no truth to the rumor I am leaving town. I thank you for your support and words of encouragement you have given to me over the years. Please know that I greatly appreciate all you have done over the years as well.
I must say the remark you made about my getting my head out of Reggie Mayo’s Ass some months ago did sting a little bit. I have to say it was really funny. The folks @ Leon’s Restaurant got a big kick out of it.
posted by: Willy D. Green on August 14, 2010 1:04pm
Also Insider2. In an earlier article you stated that Paul Bass was not a friend. Well I must respectfully disagree. While in your opinion he may not be. I must state for the record in over the 20 years I have known him I have always found him to be fair in his reporting a story. During my tenure at the Dixwell Community Paul did take the time to see what actually took place in the dismantling of the Q house. After during his homework he chose not to tear into the Q house and myself. I am more than sure that a few from the administration along with those who called themselves my friends were angry because he did not write a story about the Q house.
Also the late Dave McClendon of the New Haven Register also refused to do a story on the organization because he too took the time to do some investigative work. It was not until his departure the Register decided to do a hatchet job as well as one sided Opinion piece and no one ever spoke to me or members of my board.
So I must respectfully disagree with you on that account.
posted by: Insider2 on August 16, 2010 2:47pm
posted by: observer on August 11, 2010 4:31pm
So if a lack of a clear message was a problem, why did Johnny D wait until the day after to raise that as a concern? With half-hearted support like that, no wonder Lamont got trounced.
Lamont got bounced because he didn’t listen. Nothing more. He was told by many that he needed to make his campaign office more visible and approachable. He was also told he needed to get the help and support from those who knew the city and districts where he would possibly run into trouble. He and his people did not take any of the advice given. Im not a DeStefano fan but even Johnnie couldn’t talk to him. He lost the race because of his over the top negative campaigning and his hiring of political novices who had their own personal agendas (Alderman Paca and poor Audrey Tyson) who doesn’t know shit from shinola name a few. Can’t Blame this one on Johnnie boy.
