If Global Warming Attacks City — Run!

Hurricane coming? Don’t worry. The city has a newly updated plan.

Tornado… Earthquake … Rock slide … Sinkhole … New Haven’s got them all covered.

But a slow, inexorable rise of the ocean? Waves rolling over railroad tracks, lapping against bridges, Morris Cove turning into coastal marshland? We might be on our own in those cases.

So warned East Rock Alderman Justn Elicker. Whether or not you believe in global warming, he said, the sea level is rising and the city needs to be ready — or face erosion and the destruction of vital infrastructure. He said the city may not be ready for such occurrences in a new emergency plan.

Elicker (pictured) raised his concerns at Wednesday night’s meeting of the City Plan Commission, on which he serves as the aldermanic representative.

The commission was considering the five-year update to to the city’s Hazard Mitigation Plan, a federally mandated document describing the city’s preparedness for various natural calamities.

After a discussion, Elicker and his fellow commissioners voted unanimously to approve the plan. Elicker promised to press for more city action to prepare for rising seas as a result of climate change.

The city’s Hazard Mitigation Plan is required by the federal Disaster Mitigation Act, said Susmitha Attota (pictured), the City Plan Department staffer who spearheaded the five-year update. The plan has to be updated every five years or the city can become ineligible for federal funds. The city must submit the updated plan by Oct. 24, Attota said.

The document includes identification of hazards associated with inland flooding, coastal flooding, hurricanes, summer storms and tornadoes, winter storms, ​“land subsidence,” earthquakes and rock slides. The document identifies vulnerabilities to these threats and outlines plans to mitigate their effects. To prevent tornado damage, the city should implement a ​“city-wide tree limb inspection program to ensure that the potential for downed power lines is diminished.”

For instance, residents at the end of Myron Street in the East Shore could be affected by rockslides caused by an earthquake. In the event of a hurricane, the city can shelter about 5,700 people and has facilities to ​“accommodate the evacuation of nearly 17,705 individuals.” The plan includes predictions of which neighborhoods are likely to use public shelters, ​“depending on the community’s per capita income.”

The mitigation plan also includes a section on sea-level rising. But it’s not as extensive as it ought to be, Elicker said. The plan talks mainly about bulkheads and seawalls, and not enough about protecting infrastructure and changing zoning regulations to discourage residential uses in vulnerable areas, he said.

The plan states that although the city’s Comprehensive Plan of 2003 does not address sea level rise, the city’s new Office of Sustainability is ​“working on addressing this issue as part of climate change efforts.”

That’s also what Attota told Elicker, when he asked about zoning changes to address sea level rise.

“I think this is scary,” said commission Chair Ed Mattison (at left in photo).

“It’s very difficult to predict what will happen,” said City Engineer Dick Miller (at right). Changing designated flood plain areas has ​“a big impact on people,” he said. It can mean changes in flood insurance rates for homeowners.

Mattison said he was thinking about the seawall problems in Morris Cove, where erosion is causing collapse in some areas.

“There should be more robust investigation of what sea level rise will do to New Haven,” Elicker said. He then joined his fellow commissioners in voting unanimously to approve the plan update.

After the meeting, Elicker said he’s not completely satisfied with the document.

“There’s a section on sea level rise, but almost all of it is on sea wall reinforcement,” Elicker said.

“The report’s a great report,” Elicker said. Many cities have no plan at all for sea level rising, he said. Still, the plan has shortcomings.

For instance, the plan doesn’t address coastal wetlands, Elicker said. Wetlands are a valuable storm buffer; they comprise delicate ecosystems with a lot of biodiversity and they prevent erosion, Elicker said. As the sea level rises, ​“those wetlands will migrate inland,” and city zoning regulations need to reflect that reality, Elicker said.

The city needs to look 10 or 15 years out and consider the encroachment of the sea on coastal building, Elicker said. ​“We have to change zoning now.” That could mean deciding that certain properties shouldn’t be residential, he said. It could also mean requiring the remediation of coastal brownfields, before they’re eroded and impossible to mitigate.

Another necessity is planning to protect infrastructure like rail lines and bridges, Elicker said. The mitigation plan includes a map of flood plane areas, but it doesn’t highlight sensitive infrastructure, Elicker said.

Elicker said he voted to approve the plan despite his reservations because it needs to be submitted so soon. Also, the Office of Sustainability is working on the issue of sea level rising. Elicker said he plans to work to ensure that office addresses his concerns. ​“The Board of Aldermen could order the city to come up with a plan,” he said. But that would be premature before the Office of Sustainability has a crack at it, he added.

You don’t need to believe in global warming to know that seas are rising, Elicker said. There’s plenty of scientific evidence to confirm that fact, he said. And the city needs to be ready.