Report: Social Distancing Has Saved 10K CT Lives

Roughly 10,000 Connecticut residents have not died from the Covid-19 pandemic thanks to the state’s strict social distancing mandates, according to a new report by a local data analysis nonprofit.

That report was published Thursday by New Haven-based DataHaven.

According to the report and an accompanying press release, avoiding large gathering and crowded spaces in order to stem the spread of the infectious novel coronavirus has likely saved upwards of 10,000 lives.

Those lives might have been lost if state government had not put into effect restrictions on non-essential travel starting March 15 and closed non-essential businesses starting March 23.

According to the press release, which can be read in full here, the DataHaven estimate is based on a methodology designed by Community Information Now at the UTHealth School of Public Health, and uses data from a New York Times epidemiological model of Covid-19-related infections and deaths throughout the country.

The model compares the projected number of infections and deaths based on various durations of adherence to the social distancing restrictions put in place in Connecticut on March 23, with the estimated number of deaths that may have occurred with no social distancing.

“Social distancing enables us to ​‘break the chain of infection’ as it mitigates opportunities for Covid-19 to spread to others, who in turn, may infect many more,” city Epidemiologist Brian Weeks is quoted as saying in the press release. ​“Without social distancing and with limited measures/actions, this can rapidly snowball into tens to hundreds to thousands of additional cases burderning the healthcare system with possible fatalities that could have been easily prevented.”

According to DataHaven’s projections, extending social distancing by two more weeks would save 4,000 more lives. And one more month of social distancing would save 6,000 lives.

According to information published by the governor’s office Thursday afternoon, Connecticut currently has 23,100 laboratory-confirmed Covid-19 cases, 1,639 associated deaths, and 1,947 coronavirus patients currently hospitalized, with a total of 71,497 patients having been tested throughout the state.