Are You A Hurricane Diehard?

Coastal Connecticut residents don’t have realistic attitudes when it comes to potential hurricane risks, according to two recent studies by the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication.

“We’re self-reliant and independent and we tend to underestimate the risk,” said Dr. Jennifer Marlon, who co-authored the two studies.

Marlon said people’s perceptions of hurricane risks affect their preparedness and their willingness to evacuate.

Marlon (pictured) was a keynote speaker at a forum last week sponsored by the League of Women Voters of the East Shore; and Shoreline Village CT. The forum, which was held at Branford Fire Headquarters, dealt with the two studies — ​“Hurricane Perceptions of Coastal Connecticut Residents” and ​“Hurricane Attitudes of Coastal Connecticut Residents.”

State Rep. James Albis (D‑East Haven), who served as moderator, was in his first term when Tropical Storm Irene hit in 2011, severely impacting homes along Cosey Beach Road. ​“We lost about 40 homes in that storm,” he said. Then Super Storm Sandy hit in 2012, causing damage along the shoreline. Albis, who is co-chair of the Legislature’s Environment Committee; and chair of the state’s Task Force on Shoreline Preservation, said officials have learned a lot from both storms.

“We have done a number of thing s at the state level but as Jennifer’s research has shown, there’s a lot more to do,” Albis said.

Another keynote speaker was Kate Novick, managing partner of Gradient Planning LLC. ​“We don’t live in our parents climate,” Novick said as she discussed the effects of climate change. ​“We need to think differently about future storms.”

Rounding out the panel were former Branford fire chief, Jack Ahern, who serves as the town’s assistant emergency management director; and John Bowers, Madison’s emergency manager director. About 20 residents from shoreline communities attended.

Ahern, who was recently elected to the town’s Board of Selectmen, said he agreed with the results of the two research projects based on Branford’s experiences during the past two storms.

“For as much as we prepare, you can never really prepare for everything that might happen,” Ahern said, adding that communication is very critical, especially in the aftermath of storms. Click here to read a story about Tropical Storm Irene.

NOTE—Branford is conducting a public information meeting and workshop tonight (Wednesday) at 7 p.m. at Fire Headquarters to present the vulnerability and risk assessment conducted as the initial phase of the ​“Branford Coastal Resilience Plan.” Residents and business owners may provide input to the risk assessment by sharing their stories about coastal erosion and flood risks. 

Attitudes and Awareness

Marlon, a research scientist with the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication, said weather and storm forecasts are becoming more accurate but people’s behaviors are not changing correspondingly.

Marlon said despite lessons learned in Tropical Storm Irene, only 22 percent of shoreline residents evacuated for Superstorm Sandy the following year.

The research projects focused on attitudes about hurricanes and the need to improve communications. About 1,000 shoreline residents responded to the 12-page surveys. The projects were funded by NOAA under the Coastal Storm Awareness Program and the National Sea Grant College Program.

Marlon said attitudes about a possible Category 2 hurricane had a wide range of responses — 34 percent said it would be safer to stay than evacuate; 31 percent said it would be safer to evacuate; and about 35 percent said it was a 50/50 chance which would be safer. ​“We’re talking about a storm more severe than Sandy,” Marlon said.

She said 70 percent of the survey respondents didn’t know if they were in an evacuation zone, and 74 percent said they had never seen a local evacuation map. Marlon said the majority of people think wind damage is the greatest problem during a hurricane, but that storm surges cause the most fatalities during a coastal storm.

The report identified five groups of people based on their attitudes about hurricanes and their willingness to evacuate.

—First Out — 21 percent worried about severe storms and said they would evacuate.
—Constrained — 14 percent were aware of the risks but faced problems with evacuating because of poor health or other issues such as pets.
—Optimists — 16 percent doubted a hurricane would occur but were willing to evacuate if necessary. 
—Reluctant — 27 percent were reluctant to evacuate but would if ordered to.
—Diehards — 22 percent were confident they could ride out storm at home.

“Different groups have different information needs,” Marlon said, adding that information must be tailored to reach everyone. ​“We have to help people imagine what might happen,” she said.

Pulling Off the Blindfolds

Novick, the other keynote speaker, said climate change is affecting homes and communities. ​“We’re in new territory,” she said. ​“We have to pull the blindfolds off and look at the reality.”

She said it’s not just the initial impact of the disaster; it’s the aftermath when people struggle to recover.

“With each new hurricane, we are responsible to learn from it and prepare for the next one,” said Novick, an engineer with 20 years consulting experience.

She said people must work together to prepare for storms and to recover from them. ​“Be creative and resourceful. Ask for help ahead of time,” Novick said. ​“Get to know your neighbors.”

Local Response Teams

Ahern, who was fire chief during storms Irene and Sandy, said that storms that don’t materialize are also worrisome. ​“What we worry about is the storm that doesn’t come, because people get complacent,” he said.

Ahern said one major lesson learned from the storms was the disastrous effect on communications. He said the town’s reverse 911 system was excellent for letting people know what was happening, but that many homes didn’t have phone service. The extensive power outages knocked out service for people with Comcast phones, and for people who relied on portable phones instead of landline phones. He said some people did not register their cell phones for the town’s reverse 911 service, and that some cell towers did not have enough back-up generators. 

Branford uses the Everbridge system for reverse 911 calls, which is part of the state-wide notification system that residents should sign up for.

Ahern said people were not prepared for the long periods of power loss that occurred after the storms. ​“People think power is like Amazon — you just call and it comes overnight — it takes a long time to get the grid back.”

After lessons learned from Irene’s power outages, Ahern said the town and the power company worked together to prioritize the vulnerable areas of town. He said during Irene, the town used 53 ambulances to evacuate the Hospice because the facility was without power.

Ahern said municipal planning for disasters is a multi-faceted task. ​“There’s a lot that goes on behind the scenes,” he said, in reference to plans made by the fire and police departments. For instance, he said firetrucks and ambulances have to be pre-positioned in flood-prone areas before the storms hit. ​“Once the flood comes, nobody’s getting in and nobody’s getting out.”

Bowers, the emergency management director in Madison, also agreed with the research results. ​“Our experience models what you found with your studies,” Bowers said to Marlon. ​“We didn’t have a lot of people evacuate.”

He said many Madison residents have already elevated their homes. ​“They spent a fortune lifting their houses up and they’re not going to leave,” he said.

Bowers said the low-lying homes are the most vulnerable. ​“They’re taking their lives in their hands if they’re staying there,” he said.

Bowers said one lesson learned from Tropical Storm Irene was that gas stations need generators to stay open when the power goes out. He said the newly built rest stops along I‑95 now have generators from their gas pumps. ​“That was a big improvement,” he said.

For additional information about the research projects, see the website on the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication.

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