Three weeks.
That’s when the war in Ukraine will end, for now, predicted a leading expert on the region.
The expert, Yale political scientist David Cameron, former director of the Macmillan Center’s Program for European Union Studies, made that prediction Thursday during his latest Ukraine-update appearance on WNHH FM’s “Dateline New Haven.”
He noted that Russian President Vladimir Putin is widely believed to be seeking to declare victory by May 9, Russia’s “Victory Day.”
And he noted that based on the latest British military intelligence map of the progress of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (pictured above), Putin’s forces are making significant progress on the ground in the new, more constricted phase of the war: gaining control of a 300-mile border of two eastern Ukrainian regions (Donetsk and Luhansk) that would create a land bridge to Crimea.
Ukraine continues to fight back hard with the help of Western-supplied weaponry to keep control of remaining unconquered communities. But it’s “only a matter of time,” Cameron predicted, before Russia prevails with its more limited goal of slicing off a chunk of Ukraine (rather than occupying and incorporating the entire nation, the original aim).
At that point, Cameron predicted, Putin will end his war for now.
“They’re going to take what they can get over the next three weeks” and then declare victory, Cameron stated. “I don’t see them any time soon moving to the West.”
At that point, all sides will face the task of rebuilding. Russia has suffered deep economic damage, not to mention loss of life. Meanwhile, “Ukraine is going to come out of this a weak state,” with entire cities leveled; and with less territory than before, losing a strong industrial region. Also, “five million refugees will not come back overnight. They have no place to go back to.”
Click on the video to watch the full conversation about the status of the Ukraine War with David Cameron on WNHH FM’s “Dateline New Haven.”
Dr. Cameron's observations imply that Russia, after failing in it's first iteration of this war, will have little opposition in its second. the Ukrainian army, as it showed in the first phase, may well have other plans and capabilities.
A war doesn't end when one side declares victory, it ends when the other side gives up fighting.