As Connecticut begins to open up, state data show a chilling difference between how Covid-19 affected Hamden and New Haven: fewer cases, but more deaths in the former.
As of June 8, New Haven had clocked 2,595 positive and probable cases of the coronavirus since the local outbreak began in March; 109 people had died from the virus.
Hamden, on the other hand, had a total positive and probable caseload less than half New Haven’s: 986. 126 people, however, had died, bringing the death toll in the town higher than that of New Haven, which has more than twice the population.
Those statistics yield drastically different death rates in the two municipalities: about 4 percent in New Haven, and about 13 percent in Hamden.
There are many factors that underlie Covid-19 death rates. More people have been tested per capita in New Haven than in Hamden: 10,300 tests per 100,000 in New Haven vs. 8,169 per 100,000 in Hamden. Both municipalities likely have large numbers of uncounted infections, both among residents without symptoms and those with mild symptoms. But since Hamden has conducted fewer tests per capita, its caseload is probably undercounted more. That would contribute to an inflated death rate.
One other factor is even more clear. The age of the population, and whether there are outbreaks in nursing homes, go a long way in determining the death toll.
Hamden has an older population than New Haven. It also has a significant population living in nursing homes: 16 percent of Hamden’s population is over 65, versus 10 percent in New Haven.
In Hamden, about 80 percent of Covid-19-related deaths were among residents at six nursing homes and assisted living facilities, according to data provided by the state on June 2 and June 3. New Haven, on the other hand, had outbreaks in only five nursing homes or assisted living facilities, and 53 percent of its deaths were among residents of those five facilities.
The most deaths in a single nursing home in either municipality took place at Arden House in Hamden, which is also the largest facility in either municipality that had an outbreak, with 360 beds in total.
The nursing home had 171 residents test positive for the virus, and 42 die. The next-highest death toll in Hamden was at Hamden Rehabilitation and Healthcare Center, where 63 residents caught the virus and 22 died. Whitney Rehabilitation Care Center had 77 residents test positive, and 18 die. Smaller outbreaks also took place at Benchmark Senior Living and Meadow Mills, both with smaller death tolls. One person has tested positive at the Whitney Center, but none have died.
Together, the deaths in those six facilities account for 101 of the town’s 126 deaths, or 80 percent. Meanwhile, in New Haven, 58 nursing home and assisted living facility residents have died, out of 109 total deaths.
The average age of those who have tested positive for the virus is also much lower in New Haven than it is in Hamden.
In Hamden, the average age of the people who have tested positive for the virus is 57. The average age of those who have died is 82, according to Fire Chief Gary Merwede.
In New Haven, the average age of those who tested positive is ten years lower, at 47. The average age of those who have died is also lower, at 76.
Cases seem to be slowing at some of Hamden’s nursing homes. Patrick McDonnell, the chief administrator of Arden House, said that about 90 percent of residents have either recovered or have not contracted the virus. He said new infections have slowed.
McDonnell said the first confirmed case of Covid-19 was at the end of March. A resident went to the hospital and then returned to Arden House. They then tested positive for the virus a few days after being readmitted into the nursing home.
McDonnell said that may be one of the ways the virus entered the building. It may have also entered through staff, he said.
Asymptomatic transmission, he said, makes combatting the virus particularly difficult for nursing homes like Arden House. “That’s what makes me so nervous,” he said. “This thing can be an invisible enemy.” He said some staff members have contracted the virus but have not shown any symptoms, or have shown only very mild symptoms that were easily mistaken for something else.
A spokesperson for Benchmark Senior Living said that 17 staff members at the facility have tested positive for the virus.
High Death Rates Often Mean High Nursing Home Deaths
Genesis Healthcare
Across the state, municipalities with high overall death rates generally had a large proportion of those deaths in nursing homes or assisted living facilities.
Of the 30 municipalities that had total death rates over 15 percent, there were only two where under 60 percent of those deaths were in nursing homes or assisted living facilities. In 21 of those towns, over 80 percent of deaths were in nursing homes or assisted living facilities.
Of the 30 municipalities with the lowest death rates, on the other hand, there were only 9 in which over 80 percent of deaths took place in nursing homes or assisted living facilities.
The chart above shows a scatter plot of all municipalities with deaths in nursing homes or assisted living facilities in the state, and plots their total death rate compared with the percentage of deaths that were in facilities. As the trend-line shows, towns with higher death rates like Hamden’s tend to have a high percentage of their deaths in nursing homes. Hamden is the red point, and New Haven is the green one.
The state’s cities all had relatively low death rates. Bridgeport’s, like New Haven’s, was about 4 percent. Hartford’s was about 6 percent. In Bridgeport, only about 30 percent of deaths were among residents in nursing homes and assisted living facilities; in Hartford, 43 percent were.
As in the New Haven area, towns around those cities had much higher death rates and higher percentages of those deaths in facilities, with exceptions. Hartford is ringed by such towns. The death rates in Windsor and West Hartford were 18 and 17 percent respectively. Their percentage of deaths in facilities were 83 and 84 percent respectively.
Similarly, just outside of Bridgeport, overall death rates and percentages of deaths in facilities were both higher. Fairfield had a death rate of 21 percent, of which 79 percent were in facilities. In Trumbull, the death rate was 21 percent, with 82 percent of those deaths in facilities.
In the New Haven area, with the exception of Hamden, the differences in death rates and percentages of deaths in nursing homes were not as stark between the city and its surrounding towns. Only Woodbridge had a higher death rate than Hamden among the towns that border New Haven, at 20 percent. There, 29 of 30 deaths were among nursing home or assisted living facility residents.
West Haven, on the other hand, had a death rate of 7 percent, of which 35 percent were in long-term care facilities. The total death rates in both East Haven and North Haven were 9 percent.
