Mayor: City Should Move To Stricter Shutdown

"7. To put more of a street point to it: Got a haircut last week. I wore a mask. She wore a mask. Took my temp before. Disinfected the station before I sat down and we kept masks on the whole time. Six foot tall partition between stations. Tell me HTF anything else could/should be done. Or that any infections could possibly come out of that salon."

@ Noteworthy...

Agree 200%. The arbitrary lockdown of responsible businesses that are practicing safety measures is exactly that... arbitrary. I got a haircut a few weeks ago as well. I would also echo your exact comments in reference to my favorite tattoo shop which I promise you is cleaner then my doctors office, grocery store or any other "essential business". They are closed to walk in traffic (appointment only), practice and enforce separation, screen for temperature, everyone wears masks and they clean and disinfect religiously. I understand limiting the size of crowds for indoor dining because it groups people without masks. But a sweeping arbitrary shut down of every small business, many of whom have adapted and complied with all possible measure, seems unnecessary.

More Thoughts:

Just keep on crushing the small businesses. The cure is worse than the disease. People with businesses will not recover from a second lockdown

@ Noteworthy — Why don't we put you in charge of New Haven's public health? Between you and Donald Trump, it won't be long before the hospitals run out of beds. But who cares? That's got to be better than to live temporarily without restaurant dining, gyms, movie theaters and other indoor, mask-less gathering places....

Back in reality, we have to do something to stop the exponential explosion of COVID cases. In Connecticut, over a three days period we just went from 659 hospitalizations to 757 hospitalizations. Ugh. If we don't take significant actions to check the spread, it won't be long until we are forced to do another complete shutdown.

I'm surprised you would allow the comment above from the continually rude and abusive Noteworthy. Seems to violate multiple elements of your Comment Policy (personal attacks, name-calling, swearing, and fringe viewpoints). I don't always agree with the Mayor either, but he is a human just like the rest of us, and Noteworthy is taking cheap shots and offering a dangerous, rude, perspective.

Noteworthy, I agree with your sentiment that a shut down will generate a massive recession that the City won't survive. There is no evidence that the infection is coming from people attending to their routine activities although I can tell you that last week I wanted to get a quick cut and the barbershop was full of people and no one was wearing mask... The community which cries the most about the disproportionate number of people of color dying of this disease is also the community which is least responsive to the simple mitigation actions we can take. Walk around the Hill and you will see what I mean. It is like no one has heard of the need to wear a mask or sanitize. Bodegas and package stores say nothing to customers about the need to wear a mask and so on... But again that is how NH works. Close the schools even if that is not where the infection is transmitted.Parents send their kids out of the house bc they cant stand to have them all in the house and the kids run around with no masks like nothing is going on.. It is the small/large gatherings with no maks and no social distancing that are causing the issue... But of course let's shut everything down.

Average Taxpayer - I require both science and data. I don't want platitudes, prognostications by the mayor or his health director who just repeats what he says. Where is the data and where are the infections coming from? Whatever needs to be done, should be targeted at the source. What I know is this: It is not coming from restaurants - the governor said so. They gyms are still hardly used and they all sanitize and wear masks. It's not coming from salons - at least any that I go to. It is virtually impossible. So where is it? I've heard all about massive testing. heard all about contact tracing. So where is the data?

Movie theaters by the way - haven't been in one but they had a video concert in one the other week. Heard it was great - would only allow 1/3 capacity. Every two chairs skipped. Nobody in front or behind you. Everybody has to wear masks the whole time.

You think an escalation of 100 cases among 3.5 million people is a lot? Get real. Again, where is it coming from? Nursing homes again?

JWO - I've read swearing in news coverage and commentary in this publication. Initials do not swearing make. My commentary is fringe-worthy? lol Please get out and read more. Further, I am not anti-mask, vax or anything else. I am against hysteria, unwarranted infringement on the ability of businesses to survive, for people to be employed, for them to be able to take care of their responsibilities and families. The World Health Organization last month declared that lockdowns not only don't work, they are dangerous and they create problems and fallout that are fare worse than the virus. Moreover, hospitals are reporting that fewer hospitalizations are being put in the ICU; therapies are better and we know far more now on how to treat the sick than we did. We have a high recovery rate and many get relatively mild cases. These are facts. They aren't fringe. I strongly urge you to join me in demanding real data to justify government's unrelenting punitive power moves.

Noteworthy: Those precautions do not eliminate the chance of transmission, just reduce it. A surgical mask filters about 35% of pathogens, so, even with both you and your barber wearing masks, virus may still be transmitted, especially since there is pretty much zero social distancing. My wife works under similar circumstances, and her antibody counts indicate she was exposed (re-exposed, really). The good news is that dosage matters, so if you are low risk, whatever exposure you do receive is likely to result only in a mild case. Nick Christakis spoke of each protective measure we take as a slice of swiss cheese. A single mask will stop some pathogens, but still have holes to let others through. Distancing from our fellow disease vectors is another slice, as is that other vector wearing a mask, etc. With enough layers of protection, there are unlikely to be any holes. But just a few layers will still allow some transmission.
On the other hand, for those of us, like myself and my wife, who have had and recovered from CoViD, continued low-level exposure is likely good so that our anti-body counts remain high rather than adding to ineffective levels.
Overall, I agree that Elicker and Bond (and teh BoE) are too focused on CoViD, wanting to eliminate transmission and deaths rather than keep them at manageable levels.
AT: so far, I believe the largest jump in hospitalizations is 54 in one day, and that was over a week ago. The key metric, though is not beds. Lamont says we can create new beds in 48 hours. The limiting factor is personnel. As Noteworthy and Lamont say, there are costs ,both economic and health, in shutting businesses and schools. Remember, the wave will not peak until January, and will not subside until spring. (Per Scott Gottleib).

Constructive comments for our Mayor. It isn't fair to issue a call for people to avoid restaurants. If you are using a model of how Europe is handling this you are not taking into account they have Government pay schemes which we do not. They also have all students attending in person schooling. Comments such as this are causing extreme anxiety among those who own/work in the restaurant business. The very business which helped make New Haven vibrant and appealing to those who live outside of the city. Please remember take out only means no wages for the majority of staff. I respect you Sir and your vision but trying to scare people away because you are worried the Governor isn't rolling New Haven back to phase 1 isn't the way to lead. It was a mistake I hope you will address quickly and perhaps follow the guidance and compassion of the tristate Governors instead of interjecting personal fear. While it appears a hard shut down will be coming, that needs to happen at a top level with support for small businesses. For now it seems to prudent to ask people who work in New Haven and can work from home, to resume doing so immediately instead of just leaning on certain businesses. Monitor students returning and see if numbers decrease when other students leave the city and take a hard line on personal gatherings. People get far more lax in someone's home than they do at the small hair salon or restaurant where staff are making sure protocol is followed. New Haven with your guidance did a great job in the Spring. Let's work collaboratively and not emotionally.

On a more positive note, the reported COVID infection rate in NH is half that of every other large city in the state.
We are doing something right!

So if we wear our masks properly covering our nose AND mouth, and don't socialize indoors with people who are not part of our household, and stay the 6 feet apart or more WITH our masks on, and follow the one way aisles and limited customer capacity in stores, and disinfect everything we touch and wash our hands, and get takeout or eat outside at restaurants (and in properly circulating air ventilated heated tents in bad/cold weather,) and stay six feet apart with masks on when the waiter appears and only eat at tables with our household members, and avoid large crowds, then we can reduce the spread and the need for another shutdown. But if you are chin diaper wearing, or not wearing masks, ignoring one way signs, forgetting to stay 6 feet away, socializing indoors, partying, or otherwise not following the proper precautions, then you are contributing to the spread. The majority of infections are coming from older teens and younger adults (under age 50,) not following the virus prevention measures, and then spreading it to their families and friends. If colleges and high schools stay remote/online until the vaccine is readily available in the spring, and businesses follow the virus prevention restrictions, and everyone follows the prevention guidelines, then we can avoid the shutdown, the businesses can stay open, people can continue to work, and younger students pre-K through middle school and special needs students can return to hybrid and in person learning after the holidays.
It is up to all of us to prevent the spread and support the health of the community.

Horrible idea. Most contact tracing is showing cases are linked to private gatherings and homes, NOT restaurants and gyms.

The gym closures are perhaps the most ridiculous. An environment where everyone wears a mask and is staying healthier to better deal with pathogens!

Also, 50% indoor capacity for restaurants means they're barely holding on. Instead of banning that, how about instituting things like taking people's names and numbers at restaurants for contact tracing, and taking temps at the door?

Heather C.

And if all of that doesn't work -- Social Distancing 'Shock' Collars!!!!

I think the science and data do support shutting down indoor dining. Yale is doing the mass testing and contact tracing that Trump refused to implement nationwide. They looked that their data and banned their students from local dining after their recent outbreak. This makes sense, as the virus spreads easily without masks and indoor air circulation is not typically sufficient to disperse it. Contact tracing in other countries has documented easy spread within indoor restaurants.

We also need substantial fines for indoor private gatherings of "friends and family" who are not quarantining together. This would be hard to enforce, mostly symbolic, but might make the point.

As for other business shutdowns, I would prefer much stricter enforcement of mask wearing guidelines. I was in Maine some weeks ago and they were quite fierce about this. They have done relatively well.

The State Dept. of Health just released a study that found that restaurants are one of the worst offenders for spreading Covid in Connecticut. Patrons are infecting staff, which isn't surprising since it's been repeatedly proven to be an airborne disease and people don't wear masks at their tables when approached by a server.

I own a small business in New Haven and I think we need to go back to Phase 1. Will my business be at a higher risk of folding? Absolutely. But it is complete nonsense to pretend that as long as businesses stay open people will actually go out and shop and eat. Sales are WAY down and all of my friends that own businesses here say they are in the same boat. People are terrified, cases are surging, hospitals are starting to fill up, and people are dying of Covid every day here. We need to do everything in our power to stop this before it gets even worse. Then we can try to have some form of normalcy. We obviously aren't going to get any help from the federal government right now, but I would rather watch my business burn to the ground than know that it directly led to people losing loved ones.

I, for one, am grateful for Elicker's dedication to trying to keep New Havener's alive.

Esbey: Yale blamed its students going to restaurants, but when the city looked at the blamed restaurants, it did not find other cases with staff or others who had dined there. Aroostook county is pretty clear of CoViD because trees cannot catch it. There's quite a bit around Portland, though, and some even up to Bangor/Brewer. Personally, I feel that the more we restrict controlled places for people to socialize, like gyms and restaurants, the more stir-crazy people will have informal, uncontrolled gatherings in their homes, which the state says is teh prime cause of our current increase.

AT; Today, hospitalizations went up by 20, so our increase is decelerating/the curve is flattening.

@ 1644 — you're kidding me, right? Over a 4-day period, hospitalizations have risen from 659 beds to 777. That's an 18% increase over one long weekend.

There is absolutely no indication the curve is being flattened. One day's numbers are not a trend! If this keeps up, we'll be at 1050-1100 beds by Thanksgiving, and god knows how many by Christmas.

No one wants to go back to Phase I, but it appears inevitable. Would sure help if people took our current situation more seriously.

I predicted the soon return of Lockdown a few months ago when people were getting all giddy about the prospects of a Phase III re-opening -- something that is never going to happen here near term.

The science doesn't lie, and always seems to bear itself out.

Look at the Dakota/Sturgis Surge as a stunning and shining example of this shear anit-science stupidity.

As I said before, NH is doing better than every major city in CT by at least a factor of 2,which makes for a reasonable position for effective intervention.

I also hear the concerns of many small business owners about operating during this crisis, and I commend the caution and the concerns about being a potential 'spreader'.

And as for Nick T and his 'Parrot Mantra' of the cure being worse than the disease - he is right that small businesses will not survive another lockdown. He is also wrong in implying that small business will survive long term in the present climate. Xmas is already a done shopping season for local businesses. The first lockdown was supposed to be the 'mitigating effort', so we didn't wind up HERE. We were never supposed to be in this position,pandemic wise. But you know, freedom is a bitch in this country --, but people can either be shear idiots, or they can be mindful and cohmmunity oriented in addressing this serious public health problem.

AT: On Nov 10, we had an increase of 52 in one day, from 496 to 548, or a 20% increase in a single day. Your four day period is an average of 30 additional beds per day. Even on the first day, that's 30/659, or less than five per cent increase. While the numbers do jump around a some, we have been moving away from that high of over 50 in one day. So, while utilization is increasing, the rate of increase is decelerating, meaning the curve is rising less steeply, or flattening. Prior to about November 10, the curve was getting steeper every day as the rate of hospital utilization was accelerating. In New Haven alone, we have about 400 empty beds, so 1100 statewide is not a problem. What we don't have public data on is manpower.

@ 1644 — your attempt to extrapolate from a single day's data isn't the way it is done. Sorry.

AT; I am not using only one data point. The daily increases since Nov 10th at 52 have been 33, 42, 33, 33, 33, and now 20. That yields a flattening curve.

@ 1644 — And yesterday? A record 2042 new cases, and hospitalizations up by 39 beds.

@1644 — 2,353 new cases reported today.

Do you still think the curve is "flattening"?!??!!!

AT: You ignore the small increase of 24 in hospitalizations, which means deceleration, or at least no more acceleration, as was the case prior to November 10th, when each day's increase was generally greater than that prior. The key metric is hospitalizations, as that, not cases or deaths, is what places a burden on our healthcare system. An overwhelmed healthcare system means excess deaths from non-CoViD-19 causes as well as deaths from triaged CoViD-19 patients, notably those who might be saved, but whose saving would take resources that could save more than one other life. I, also, note, no increases in deaths under age 29 since spring. CT DPH does not break down the cases by age group, but other sources indicate that they are trending high in the under 30 crowd. As Gottlieb says, the more folks that are infected and live, the slower the spread will be and the faster we can return to a normal life. There will not be enough vaccine for all soon, so natural immunity will play a key role along with vaccine induced immunity in slowing the spread.