Covid Updates: Containment Strategy Prepared; Nursing Home Numbers Up; Budget Hit Hard

With a small army of contact tracing volunteers and a coronavirus containment strategy focused on testing, isolation, and quarantine, top city health officials are preparing for weeks, even months more of social distancing mandates that wax and wane depending on the severity of the pandemic at any given time.

Mayor Justin Elicker, city Community Services Administrator Mehul Dalal, and city Health Director Maritza Bond outlined those short- and mid-term government plans for responding to the novel coronavirus outbreak during the mayor’s daily Covid-19 virtual press briefing.

The 40-minute update took place online via the Zoom teleconferencing app and on YouTube Live.

Elicker said that the city currently has 859 confirmed positive Covid-19 cases and 32 coronavirus-related fatalities.

Dalal said that the city plans to implement an ​“adaptive response” model in the coming weeks and months as Connecticut passes its expected Covid-19 new infection and hospitalization peak later this month.

That model would ​“loosen” and ​“tighten” some of the stricter social distancing, reduced occupancy, and preventative public health measures that have shut down much of New Haven’s economy and social life in an effort to keep people who are sick or asymptomatic carriers of the disease physically apart.

“If we do the loosening up of the restrictions and the opening up of the economy in the wrong way, we’ll end up with a resurgence” of the virus and potentially many more infections, hospitalizations, and deaths, he said.

He compared the model to turning on a water faucet gradually, assessing how things are going as the water flows, and then turning the knob backward or forward depending on whether the virus remains contained or begins to spread again.

“We may be in a scenario where we have to get used to the idea of loosening restrictions when the epidemic is at bay and tightening them up when the epidemic is in an upswing.”

He said epidemiologists are forecasting such an upswing might take place in the Fall.

“This might be what we talk about as a new normal.”

Dalal pointed to Italy and the United States as a country as representing one model for responding to the first outbreak of the novel coronavirus, with insufficient testing, late social distancing mandates, and inadequate contact tracing resulting in widespread infection and economic disruption. In Singapore and in China outside of Hubei Province, he said, governments responded in the opposite manner, with a significant focus on testing, social distancing, and contact tracing, thereby stemming the spread of the virus.

“Now that we’re plateauing and probably coming down, how do we put together an aggressive framework that helps to suppress the disease from recurring?”

Dalal called for a data-driven approach to deciding how to loosen up social distancing restrictions.

He said the four pillars of the city’s response over the coming weeks and months will:

1. Ramping up testing. ​“Testing needs to be done very widely” in order for people to know who has the disease and needs treatment or needs to isolate, and who does not.

2. Voluntary isolation. ​“Once you test, you need to have a robust isolation program” for people who have tested positive, he said. The city has to help and support residents who have tested positive isolate so that they don’t feel like they have to go outside for the duration of their illness and potentially infect others while trying to meet basic needs like getting groceries and pharmaceuticals.

3. Contact tracing. The city needs to be able to identify and interview people who have been in recent contact with those who have tested positive for the virus to figure out how much risk those people have of contracting the virus and potentially spreading it.

Bond said that the city already has 70 ​“contact tracers” actively making phone calls and interviewing people who have tested positive and been in touch with those who have tested positive. ​“We have trained 90 additional volunteers who are now ready to go so that we can provide additional tracing,” she said.

4. Quarantine. ​“Those found with exposure should quarantine for 14 days,” he said, to make sure that they do not inadvertently spread the virus during its incubation period.

“I don’t think any of us [at the state or local level] feel like we’re fully prepared,” said Elicker (pictured). ​“I do think that we’re doing the best that we can and that our team has set out a pretty solid framework for addressing the problem.”

He said that so many people have reached out to the city asking how they can help during this crisis.

“We anticipate that we’ll continue to have people volunteering” to help with contact tracing. He said those volunteers working with the Health Department on contact tracing have ​“some medical background” and receive training from the city on how to conduct these interviews.

More Police, Firefighters Move To UNH

Elicker (pictured) said that 21 city firefighters and three city police officers are now residing at the University of New Haven, per a recently inked agreement between the city and the West Haven-based private university to house local first responders who have not tested positive for the virus but need a place to stay so as to minimize exposure for their families.

Elicker said that a variety of preventative measures like holding off on police officers responding to medical calls alongside firefighters and not having police officers travel in pairs in the same vehicle seem to be working in mitigating the spread of the virus among law enforcement.

Nursing Homes Numbers Continue To Rise

Bond (pictured) and, in a follow up email, city spokesperson Gage Frank said that nursing home infections among residents and staff continue to increase.

At Yale New Haven Hospital’s Grimes Center, 18 staff and 54 residents have tested positive for Covid-19. Of the latter, 37 remain at the nursing home facility, nine are currently hospitalized, and two have died.

At Mary Wade Home’s two facilities in Fair Haven, a total of seven staff and 26 residents have tested positive for Covid-19. Six of those residents remain at Mary Wade’s Kimberly facility, 16 are hospitalized, and three have died.

At RegalCare in Fair Haven Heights, five staff and 12 residents have tested positive. Seven of those residents remain at the facility and five are now hospitalized.

And at Bella Vista in Fair Haven Heights, one staff member and 12 residents have tested positive. Six of those residents remain at the apartment complex and six are now hospitalized.

Budget Revenue Toll Likely Significant

Elicker reiterated that he expects Covid-19 will take a significant toll on the city’s budget, particularly on sources of revenue like property tax collection, building permits, parking meter revenue, and parking tickets.

“There has not yet been a lot of discussions from national partners about the revenue side of things,” he said. ​“There has been a lot of support about the spending part of things,” with the city receiving additional money from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) to help pay for housing for the homeless during this crisis.

Lost revenue is another matter, he said. ​“It will be difficult for us to make those numbers up.”

He said that the Board of Alders will soon vote on how best to act on two sources of potential property tax relief that the governor has allowed municipalities to issue. One option would be to provide temporary tax forbearance of property tax collection, the other reduced interest on delinquent tax payments to property owners under certain conditions.

“What we really don’t know is the long term impact on our fiscal situation,” Elicker said. What if homeowners who have lost their jobs are not able to pay their taxes?

Face Masks Required Starting Friday

When asked about what kind of public response he’s heard so far about his executive order requiring people to wear masks while inside essential retail stores, Elicker said he’s heard ​“a lot of positive feedback, and frankly, very little negative feedback.”

He said people have reached out to him and said they feel in danger going to the grocery store or the pharmacy because so many shoppers are not wearing masks. ​“Some people are saying, ​‘It’s about time.’”

The mayor reiterated that the order to wear cloth, non-medical grade masks is designed to prevent asymptomatic people from unwittingly spreading the disease to others.

“The importance of wearing masks is to protect other people. By you wearing the mask, you’re reducing the likelihood of your germs being spread to other people in the community.”