The latest analysis of New Haven area wastewaster shows Covid-19 cases trending a bit upwards after a steep decline, but still 45 times lower than during the recent Omicron-driven peak.
That’s the word from Yale environmental engineering professor Jordan Peccia’s team, which during the pandemic has been conducting weekly analysis of wastewater — the most reliable early-warning measure of the coronavirus’s trajectory. More reliable than official case numbers or positive-test percentages.
The team’s most recent analysis as of March 15, showed 5,000 copies of Covid per mililieter in New Haveners’ poop.
While a bit higher than the previous weekly sample, it still reflects a level at the lowest infection rate since last summer’s pause between variants.
The New Haven sample tracks with other wastewater sampling nationwide showing what some analysts believe is a coming uptick driven by a new subvariant of the Omicron variant. Click here for a New York Times article quoting experts predicting that the U.S. will follow Europe in seeing a renewed rise driven by the subvariant, but tempering that prediction with reasons for “caution” rather than “alarm” as a pandemic becomes endemic.
Peccia was asked for his take on all this speculation and prognostication.
“I don’t want to speculate on causes other than Omicron is very contagious and it is still cold and flu season,” he responded. “I don’t think anybody knows where it will go from here. We have some things on our side: (i) built up immunity from vaccines and the last wave and (ii) warming weather.
“As always, it is very important for people to be vaccinated and boosted.”
Let’s hope this just reflects the discontinuation of mask mandates and people eating in restaurants more - rather than another surge.